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Con-con
Cool Raiden moving without awkward feel
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 Posted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 2:07 am Post subject:
Re: Coldman missed one important thing |
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| Daxter Fan wrote: | | Thinking about how clever this idea of perfect deterrence can really be, I asked myself this one question--how could nuclear deterrence really affect religion based terrorist groups and/or countries? What do you guys think? |
Your post should be:
| Daxter Fan wrote: | | Thinking about how clever this idea of perfect deterrence can really be, I asked myself this one question, "How could nuclear deterrence really affect religion based terrorist groups and/or countries?" What do you guys think? |
Personally, I think you're banned. We'll see you on the 13th though! |
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Ravi Singh
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| Posted: Fri Jul 09, 2010 3:54 am Post subject:
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| Daxter Fan wrote: | | Putting them in the dilemma of whether they should fire a nuke to america for example, why should they fear getting a strike back? they are not afraid of dying for their cause. Can peace detterence be kept under these circumstances? |
For a theocracy, yes. People assume that the higher ups in such countries are devoted to their ideologies. In reality, such people enjoy being able to control everything. The Ayatollah of Iran does fear a nuke hitting their country. For a terrorist group though, it really depends.
While groups such as Al-Queda seem intimidating due to what looks like pride in becoming martyrs, the majority of these groups are not suicidal. You will never see someone like Ayman al-Zawahiri launch a nuke unless he was sure that his exact location is unknown. The problem with Al-Queda of course, is that they don't have a set location. We could nuke wherever the missile was launched from, but we could be targeting an enemy of the same group that attacked us. There's also the fear that terrorist groups won't launch missiles, they'll smuggle bombs to detonate.
However, this isn't exclusive to "religious" entities. There's some fear that North Korea's Kim Jong-il is crazy enough to launch a nuke for the laughs, especially nearing old age. He could reason that he's going to die anyways, so why not do it with a bang? This is, of course, assuming how he thinks. He's probably content with watching American movies and eating all day.
Also - EUROPEAN EXTREME GAME OVER:
| Daxter Fan wrote: | | What I meant was, putting religion based terrorist groups, which refers to islamic extermists, in a position that grants them the ability of launching nukes over their enemies. Putting them in the dilemma of whether they should fire a nuke to america for example, why should they fear getting a strike back? they are not afraid of dying for their cause. Can peace detterence be kept under these circumstances? |
Should be: | Daxter Fan wrote: | | What I mean is putting religion based terrorist groups (Islamic extremists) in a position that grants them the ability of launching nukes over their enemies. In the dilemma of whether they should fire a nuke to the United America for example, why should they fear getting a strike back? They are not afraid of dying for their cause. Can peace deterrence be kept under these circumstances? |
This was a pretty cool discussion we were having too. We'll carry on upon your return.
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Cheezedoodles
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| Posted: Sun Jul 11, 2010 11:39 am Post subject:
Re: Coldman missed one important thing |
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| Daxter Fan wrote: | | Thinking about how clever this idea of perfect deterrence can really be, I asked myself this one question--how could nuclear deterrence really affect religion based terrorist groups and/or countries? What do you guys think? |
Well at the time (the Cold War), in theory of course, it works... but only because of the time they were in. A terrorist organization however might think differently about war. I don't believe that certain organizations would have much of a problem pressing the button... but then again. I could be wrong. |
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Ravi Singh
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| Posted: Sun Jul 11, 2010 3:56 pm Post subject:
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| Code: | HUEY
Nuclear deterrence means preventing the use of nuclear weapons in conflicts between states. But what about other situations?
SNAKE
Like what?
HUEY
Terrorism has been on the rise in recent years, from separatist movements to far-left extremists. What would happen if nuclear weapons fell into terrorist hands? Without a state - that is, without territory of their own - the chances of having nukes used against them are slim. They have no reason to fear a nuclear strike. Conversely, they have no reason to hesitate to use nukes against their adversaries.
SNAKE
You've got a point. All the ICBMs and strategic bombers in the world amount to nothing against a terrorist group.
HUEY
Right! Of course, this is all still hypothetical. Countries keep their nukes under tight watch - there's no immediate danger of terrorists getting their hands on them. But the day may come when the proposition of nuclear terrorism makes nuclear deterrence theory a dead letter.
SNAKE
Nuclear terrorism... Interesting.
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The thing is, DaxterFan specifically mentioned theocracies as well. Which I find irrelevant unless they truly believed in a doomsday Armageddon scenario in order to bring something like Judgment Day quicker.
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jdnation
Zanzibar Land Poisonous Hamster
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| Posted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 3:24 am Post subject:
Re: Coldman missed one important thing |
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| Daxter Fan wrote: | | Thinking about how clever this idea of perfect deterrence can really be, I asked myself this one question--how could nuclear deterrence really affect religion based terrorist groups and/or countries? What do you guys think? |
That's the idea, it doesn't as the 2nd ending with Miller and Big Boss clears up. The age of nuclear deterrence is coming to an end. Soon it'll be about terrorism...
Deterrence doesn't work for terrorists because terrorists supposedly operate separately from the government and don't represent the administration or their country. So if they get ahold of nukes and use them, it can't be considered an act of war on that country's behalf because they technically aren't responsible, so one can't retaliate.
That what makes the idea of terrorists getting a hold of nukes frightening. They're an enemy that can hide anywhere and no country can be held accountable for their actions unless it can be proven that they are are actually a group operating under a country secretly or a country protects them.
Terrorist mobility is also what makes Metal Gear a fearful weapon. It is completely mobile and can launch a nuke from anywhere in the world. If terrorists get their hands on one, they no longer need to rely on having actual huge missile silos built, and they don't need to infiltrate a country and smuggle a nuke in to set it off. They can go anywhere and launch from anywhere. |
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Daxter Fan
Soup Sucker
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| Posted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 3:34 am Post subject:
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Oh! I missed that briefing tape. They barely missed a thing I see.
| Quote: | | The thing is, DaxterFan specifically mentioned theocracies as well. Which I find irrelevant unless they truly believed in a doomsday Armageddon scenario in order to bring something like Judgment Day quicker. |
I realised I was quite wrong at that , yep.
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Victor Katilis
Nanomachine Twilight
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| Posted: Mon Jul 26, 2010 5:18 am Post subject:
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| Quote: | | Nuclear terrorism... Interesting. |
So he brought the idea all along to 1995 from Huey. |
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Coldman missed one important thing
